How the economy will affect voters in Pennsylvania’s battleground state

If the election is about the “economy, stupid,” Ben McDuffee hasn’t had the kind of confidence-boosting year that makes him feel good about keeping the Democrats at the top of the ticket for another four years. He’s a Democrat too.

The Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, resident lost his job late last year. He worked in automotive finance and was unemployed for three months. During that time, he applied to over 200 jobs. In March, he accepted a position at a local credit union — and a $30,000 pay cut.

That hit to income, combined with higher prices at the grocery store and a recent increase in their monthly rent, meant the budget was tightening. He and his wife have put plans to buy a home for themselves and their 11-year-old son on hold because interest rates have also risen.

“You know, ultimately, the question voters ask when they go to the polls every four years is, am I in a better place than I was four years ago? And when we pull our grocery card every week, we’re absolutely no better off than we were four years ago,” McDuffee said in an interview with ABC News at home.

“So we have to balance that with … what do we think will happen to the country if we elect the other guy?”

From what he sees every day in his rural Pennsylvania town — a sliver of one of the nation’s most critical swing states — antipathy toward “the other guy,” former President Donald Trump, may not be enough to Vice President Kamala Harris. overcome what he sees as a major liability: the economy.

It’s the reality of this election, and it rings especially true in his embattled state: Despite a strong recovery from the global pandemic — including record-low unemployment, strong wage growth and robust consumer spending — the economy is still a major concern. for voters.

According to an ABC News-Washington Post/Ipsos poll, more than 85 percent of adults view the economy and inflation as extremely important to their vote for the president, by far the top two issues. And voters trusted Trump over Harris on both issues by 9 points.

“There’s a disconnect between these macroeconomic numbers coming out and then what we’re hearing people report about how they feel about the economy,” Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute and former chief economist of the Labor Department during the Obama administration.

A major reason it’s such a steep political challenge, she says, is that high prices are more obvious to people every day than national statistics or even their own pay rise.

“People’s living standards are actually rising despite the higher price level. So what’s happening now is actually what we want to see,” Shierholz said. “But it’s still frustrating when you go to the grocery store or wherever and you see these high prices. You don’t always think in the back of your head, “Well, I’ve got that big pay rise too, I can cover that. and yet be well'”.

Since the peak of the pandemic recession, the U.S. has seen total consumer prices rise 20 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while inflation-adjusted wages have risen about 25 percent on average.

That makes some people feel worse than they actually are — and for people like McDuffee, who have seen their incomes drop or stay the same, the squeeze from higher prices is especially powerful.

“I don’t doubt the numbers. But it all comes down to what you can do with the money you have for your family. And you don’t feel all these great numbers,” McDuffee said.

It’s a perception Harris knows he’ll have to turn on to win over voters in critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, which could be key to winning the presidency.

“Today, by almost every measure, our economy is the strongest in the world,” Harris said at a recent campaign rally focused on the North Carolina economy. But he was also careful to try not to alienate voters who don’t feel those impacts.

“We know that many Americans do not yet feel this progress in their daily lives. The costs are still too high. And on a deeper level, for too many people, no matter how hard they work, it’s so hard to be capable. to move forward,” Harris added.

To address this concern, Harris and President Joe Biden have promoted a “cost-cutting” campaign, a handful of policies designed to lower everyday prices for people.

Efforts like negotiating the price of Medicare-covered drugs so seniors pay less for their prescriptions and enacting regulations requiring companies to disclose “junk fees” for products like hotel rooms or concert tickets. For nearly 4.8 million people, the administration canceled student loans.

For McDuffee, these policies are not very effective.

He will reluctantly vote for Harris, he says, but he knows many voters will prioritize their bank accounts in November.

“The one thing I think a lot of consumers are feeling is that when they swipe their card at the gas pump, at the grocery store, when they’re buying school clothes, all of these items are more expensive than they were four. years ago,” McDuffee said. “And I think that resonates.”

Yet three hours to the southeast, Philadelphia City Councilwoman Katherine Gilmore Richardson says it’s an example of why the Biden administration’s piecemeal policies are working — and they’ve exponentially changed her family’s economic trajectory.

“Without any hesitation. I am better than four years ago. My family is better off because of the work of the Biden-Harris administration. And my kids will be better off because of the Biden-Harris administration, if nothing else,” she said in an interview at her home in West Philadelphia.

Richardson, who has worked for the city for more than 20 years, canceled his student debt as part of major reforms to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, or PSLF, which allows people to forgive their remaining debt after working in public. service and paid the loan for 10 years.

Since then, she’s helped her husband and sister, who both work in non-profits and social work, respectively, get their debts cleared.

Using her family’s student loan savings, Richardson, a mother of three, enrolled her two younger children in a one-on-one reading camp this summer.

However, Richardson knows that receiving debt relief is a unique reason to feel good about the economy. Of the 43 million Americans with student loan debt, about one in 10 have had their loans canceled by the Biden-Harris administration so far.

“I hear from my constituents who have a number of concerns about the economy and their ability to afford good quality housing for, you know, food costs and to be able to take care of their families,” Richardson acknowledged. .

Still, a delegate to the Democratic National Convention and a big fan of both Biden and Harris, Richardson says she believes her story reflects ongoing efforts to reduce financial burdens and a reason to re-elect Democrats.

“I think we need to do a better job of telling that story and talking about the work they’re trying to do,” she said.

How the economy will sway voters in battleground Pennsylvania originally appeared on abcnews.go.com