Can Antonio Pierce capitalize on the chaos again?

In a five-day span in 2023, the same NFL team lost one game while scoring zero points and won another by putting up 63. That’s the beauty of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Last year’s Raiders cut one of the last branches on Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, firing Josh McDaniels after 25 games and a 9-16 record. In his place came the linebacker who helped wipe out the New England Patriots’ 19-0 season, Antonio Pierce. Pierce, running a head coaching campaign of equal parts respect for his players and recognition that he wasn’t, in fact, Josh McDaniels, went 5-4 at the helm to lock up the full-time job through 2024.

Now comes the hard part. Pierce inherits a team that has moved above its weight class to end 2023. Its starting quarterback will be either:

• Aidan O’Connell, a 2023 fourth-round pick who was statistically the third-worst quarterback that year (ahead of only Mac Jones and Zach Wilson), or
• Gardner Minshew, a cromulent backup who can operate in a limited system and is already on his fourth NFL team in six seasons.

The greatest player is a 31-year-old coming off his least effective season since 2015. The running back who led the league in rushing yards in 2022 is now a Green Bay Packer. The rush beyond superstar Maxx Crosby will rely on a player who had two sacks between 2021 and 2022 continuing his breakthrough coded by Pierce.

And yet, it’s foolish to write off the Raiders in 2024. Let’s look at how a man who was never much more than a linebackers coach at the NFL level can continue to thrive.

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Raiders can survive with a competent offense. But that’s a big question.

Las Vegas has one of the bleakest quarterback situations in the league; a timeshare between veteran and young prospect, only instead of a vaunted first-round pick, the guy the Raiders hope to turn into a franchise quarterback was a Day 3 pick.

That’s not to say Aidan O’Connell can’t emerge as a reliable starter, but his rookie numbers might. On the surface, it was viable; 12 touchdown passes in 11 games against seven interceptions and a 62% completion rate. Those aren’t game-winning numbers, but his 83.9 passer rating was better than fellow young QBs like Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell or Mac Jones.

Except, well, all of those guys were traded this offseason by teams uninterested in developing their talent further. O’Connell stays, in part because he finished with a flourish. After a rocky start, he has thrown nine touchdowns against one interception over the last six games, going 3-3 in the process. He also threw for just 212 yards per game, was stagnant and averaged a loss of seven yards per sack.

That left his overall impact, even in his prime, below average in terms of expected points added (EPA).

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Those numbers paint him as a similar caliber quarterback to the one who will join him on the depth chart this fall. Minshew was a Pro Bowler in 2023, which should tell you all you need to know about a quarterback’s availability at the NFL All-Star Game. The young journeyman is a reliable shortstop whose rise has been limited by his struggle to make hard throws in the middle range. He blanks defenders in the middle of the field, creating avoidable turnovers with frustrating throws.

Gardner Minshew really wanted to make an interception on this drive. #Colts#ForShoe#Jaguars#DUUUVAL#INDvsJAX pic.twitter.com/7Ez5Cf65fD

— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) October 15, 2023

According to SIS, Minshew completed just 53.9 percent of throws to travel 10 to 19 yards downfield in 2023 and 47.5 percent of all throws to travel at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage . Part of that can be attributed to his inability to stay in the pocket; His penchant for scrambling, even with minimal pressure, forces him to throw on the run and make bad decisions paired with poor footwork.

Sometimes this works and stuns you with a big piece. Sometimes it fails horribly. Now he gets a playmaking offense that can save him at short, though it’s fair to wonder if we’ve seen the last of a truly dominant Davante Adams.

Adams, in part because of quarterback issues, averaged just 6.5 yards per target in 2023 — 103rd best in the NFL and by far his worst number since emerging as a true WR1 in 2016. With however, the 1.95 meters on the route ranked 25th between Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman, who is more optimistic for 2024.

But Adams will turn 32 in December. While his size will help mitigate the loss of speed that comes with age, he may give up some of his absurd target rate (175 in 2023!) to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, the latter of whom is highly effective in short bursts as a beginner. last fall. More importantly, O’Connell or Minshew will have two high-profile tight ends to turn short targets into big gains in rookie first-round pick Brock Bowers and 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer.

This is a useful backup system for a binary star of flawed quarterbacks, especially if Zamir White can step into the RB1 role he was groomed for. But the biggest asset the Raiders have isn’t on the offensive side of the ball.

Stephen R. Sylvania-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce turned the Las Vegas defense into a truly fearsome unit last fall

Here’s how the Raiders defense has looked in eight games under McDaniels:

• Points allowed per game: 23.4
• Yards allowed per game: 338
• Expected Points Allowed (EPA) Per Game: 0.038 (26th best in NFL)

Here’s how the Raiders defense looked in nine games under Pierce:

• Points allowed per game: 16
• Yards allowed per game: 325
• Allowed EPA per game: -0.141 (2nd best in NFL)

That’s a sharp turnaround, even though the team has given up a similar amount of yards each week. What triggered the change? Pierce’s group came across as a bunch of hungry goblins at the end of the season. Las Vegas had eight forced turnovers in eight games under McDaniels, six of which came in tilts against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Under Pierce, they forced 14 in nine games, including five in a shellacking of the Los Angeles Chargers that sealed the fate of fired head coach Brandon Staley.

Malcolm Koonce played an important role in this brilliance. The former third-round pick was an afterthought through his first two seasons in the league and for the first half of 2023. But after McDaniels was fired, his rushing stock rose and the former University of Buffalo star shined; all eight of his sacks last year and 14 of his 17 quarterback hits came after Pierce took over.

Koonce isn’t a full-time player yet — even in his ascension, he played more than two-thirds of the team’s defensive snaps just once, and that was in the final game of 2023 — but his athleticism has shined under Pierce , making him the perfect servant to clean up the mess Crosby created. That’s before counting for new sauce Christian Wilkins, who will make sure there’s no room to step in the pocket thanks to his penetration in the middle of the line.

This also ignores the fact that even before Wilkins arrived, the Raiders played the league’s best defense under Pierce by a wide margin!

via rbsdm.com

This would have been an advantage for your typical Raiders team with a secondary deficit. But last year’s team showed promise in pass defense that we didn’t see in Las Vegas (and it’s been a while since we’ve seen it in Oakland, too). Trevon Moehrig is becoming a potential All-Pro safety. Cornerback Jack Jones was a sack from the New England Patriots who allowed a passer rating of just 63.0 through seven games last season. Jakorian Bennett is broken, but should be better in his second season as a pro.

All of which suggests that the incredible finishing that Pierce spurred in 2023 can be replicated in 2024, even if opposing offenses have a little more running to do. And with a soft finish to this year’s schedule, another rally could be on the way.

***

Look, I have to wrap this up. I could easily say 3,000 words about the Raiders, who might be the most exciting team in 2024. There’s a lot to like about this roster and this coach, even if most of the optimism hinges on a small sample.

Las Vegas has the potential to compete for a playoff spot and a head coach who has been able to get the most out of his guys when given the opportunity. The question now is whether Antonio Pierce can keep that going or if the bounce and optimism that comes from firing Josh McDaniels is a one-time thing.

If I had to bet, I’d lean on Las Vegas’ 6.5 win streak this season.